Methods of Risk Analysis

Political risks are strategic risks which result from the interplay of influential actors. This understanding has far reaching consequences for our methodology of risk analysis. The early warning of political risks requires strategic interaction intelligence.

Similarly, the outcome of your projects and enterprises depend upon the actions of your partners and competitors. Understanding their motivations, intentions and options is a prerequisite for the development of risk scenarios.

By focussing on strategic risks the BERLIN RISK INSTITUTE takes an exceptional position. Political risks are usually measured in terms of country ratings. Indexes of stability and effectiveness are concise and useful for determining general trends. Their utility is limited, however, when it comes to determining specific risk scenarios because the political future will be shaped by the strategic operations of relevant actors.

The BERLIN RISK INSTITUTE applies innovative forecasting methods such as the Action Filter Process and Risk Profiling of actors.

The Action Filter Process is used to ascertain probable future operations by individuals whose concurrence will lead to either cooperation or conflict. Various risk scenarios are derived from strategic action sequences. Risk Profiling is conducive to exploring the motivations of individual actors or groups. Identifying motivations is an essential requirement for understanding and predicting strategic behaviour.